Petrol Price in Nigeria Set for Another Surge
Petrol price may hit over ₦1,000 per liter for petrol following President Bola Tinubu’s approval of a 15 per cent import tariff on fuel imports.
The policy, which takes effect after a 30-day transition period ending November 21, 2025, is part of the government’s effort to protect local refineries and reduce dependence on imported petroleum products.
But fuel marketers warn that the move could backfire, pushing the petrol price in Nigeria beyond what most citizens can afford.
Petrol Price in Nigeria Already Near ₦920 Before Tariff
Several depot operators told reporters that pump prices could jump past ₦1,000 per litre once the tariff kicks in. Petrol already sells for around ₦920 in parts of the country, depending on location and supply costs.
“As it is, the price of fuel may go above ₦1,000 per liter,” one depot owner said. “I don’t know why the government will be adding more to people’s suffering.”
Another operator expressed concern that without strong regulation and fair competition, the market could become dominated by a few large players, especially Dangote Refinery and its partners.
The Marketers’ Reaction
The National Vice-President of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Hammed Fashola, acknowledged that the policy has both positive and negative implications.
While it could promote local refining and reduce import dependence, he warned it might also lead to higher prices and potential scarcity if local refiners fail to meet national demand.
“The 15 per cent tariff will discourage importation, but if our refineries can’t supply enough fuel, the country will face scarcity,” he said. “It’s a policy that must be carefully managed to avoid hurting consumers.”
Fashola also urged the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) and private refineries to speed up refinery rehabilitation and expansion. “If all NNPC refineries come on board, and private refineries like BUA start producing, we’ll have healthy competition and no fear of monopoly,” he added.
Petrol Price in Nigeria and the Government’s Rationale
According to a presidential directive dated October 21, 2025, the tariff applies to petrol and diesel at a 15 per cent rate on their Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) value.
The proposal, initiated by the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), aims to align import costs with local production realities. The tariff, government sources said, is “not revenue-driven but corrective,” designed to stabilize market pricing, strengthen the naira, and protect new domestic refineries.
Projections from the FIRS indicate that the 15 per cent duty could raise petrol’s landing cost by about ₦99.72 per liter, translating to an additional ₦1.92 billion in daily import costs.
Despite this, the presidency argues that even with the new tariff, pump prices in Lagos would remain around ₦964.72 per liter ($0.62), still below regional averages in countries like Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, and Senegal.
Divided Opinions Among Stakeholders
Not everyone agrees with the policy.
While the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) described the tariff as a “win-win situation” for both government and local producers, others warned that the move could hurt ordinary Nigerians.
PETROAN President, Billy Gillis-Harry, said, “If we drive everyone out of the import business, we risk scarcity. Dangote alone cannot meet the nation’s fuel needs, so there must be a mix of supply sources.”
In contrast, Chief Ayiri Emami, an APC chieftain and oil businessman, criticized the policy, describing it as “anti-people.”
“Whoever advised the President to impose a 15 per cent tax on fuel is not doing him any good,” Emami said at a press briefing in Abuja. “It will not hurt marketers; it will hurt ordinary Nigerians who are already struggling.”
Petrol Price in Nigeria and the Bigger Picture
Experts note that while Nigeria has made progress toward domestic refining with the Dangote Refinery and several modular plants now operational, the country still imports nearly 70 per cent of its petrol consumption.
Energy analyst Olatide Jeremiah warned that the new tariff would “inevitably add about ₦100 per liter to the landing cost of fuel,” potentially creating price instability.
“The policy will encourage investment in local refining, yes, but it may also strain consumers’ wallets in the short term,” he said.
Petrol Price in Nigeria: What Happens Next
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) confirmed it would enforce the new policy once it receives official communication.
“We are the sector regulator,” spokesperson George Ene-Ita said. “Once the directive arrives, we will midwife the process. Prices may rise or stabilize depending on market realities, but government mechanisms are in place to prevent extreme spikes.”
President Tinubu has also directed that the tariff be reviewed periodically and, as local refining capacity expands, possibly reduced or removed.
